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The threat of a new cryptocurrency fever brought down NVIDIA shares by almost 6%
07.01.2021 [14:53],
Alexey Razin

When the video card market was covered by the first cryptocurrency boom in the history of mankind, NVIDIA company doubted for a long time how to calculate the contribution of miners to the company’s revenue in the gaming sector, but sobering followed after the market collapse. That period, called the «crypto hangover» by the NVIDIA management, taught the company to be wary of the possibility of making money on miners. It looks like now the situation is repeating itself.

Image Source: Bloomberg News

The stale chips of the Pascal generation then had to be sold at reduced prices, and the release of successors, as was commonly believed, was not only artificially delayed, but was also accompanied by a pricing policy that was not quite popular among consumers.

At that time, NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress suggested that over several months of peak demand for cryptocurrencies, miners increased the company’s revenue by almost $ 1 billion. This week, the rate of Ethereum, a cryptocurrency, for the production of which you can still use the computing resources of video cards, exceeded $ 1000. This should attract more buyers from the number of miners to the current models of NVIDIA video cards, although even without this the situation on the gaming market did not allow us to talk about an excess of corresponding components.

According to analysts’ forecasts, cited by The Wall Street Journal, the fourth fiscal quarter, which ends on the NVIDIA calendar this month, will increase the company’s revenue in the gaming direction by 58%. This is the largest increase in three years, and the last such change was also related to the cryptocurrency boom.

There is a risk that the current «cryptocurrency bubble» will deflate quickly enough, because the long-delayed structural changes in the Ethereum market have all the chances to materialize this year. For the sake of improving network scalability, the issuers of this cryptocurrency will abandon the concept of Proof-of-Work in favor of Proof-of-Stake. Miners will no longer be involved in transaction validation, the need for their services will disappear, at the same time they will lose interest in buying and operating video cards. The secondary market will be flooded with used graphics cards, this will affect sales of new ones in a negative way, as a result, NVIDIA’s revenue will suffer, as it was after the end of the first wave of the cryptocurrency boom.

Similar investor expectations, exacerbated by the gathering clouds over the company’s deal with Arm, have already caused the share price to decline by 5.9%. Prior to that, NVIDIA securities were one of the fastest growing in the market, over the previous twelve months they have risen in price more than twice. Investors now have a much better understanding of the implications for GPU developers that a new round of «cryptocurrency fever» could have.

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