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Broken Starlink satellites from SpaceX promise huge problems for space
SpaceX launches dozens of satellites into space to create Starlink, a constellation of spacecraft that will provide high-speed Internet access anywhere in the world. So far, the diagram presented by SpaceX founder Elon Musk seems to work, but not so rosy.
SpaceX; Kevork Djansezian / Getty; Business Insider
SpaceX even plans to open public beta testing in the northern US and southern Canada in the coming months. “Other countries will follow the US as soon as we get regulatory approval,” added Mr. Musk.
All of these mini-satellites are designed to be able to maneuver in space using an ion engine and send from orbit to Earth at the right time to burn up in the atmosphere. But satellites with faulty communication systems or engines become essentially garbage, fly uncontrollably at high speeds, posing a danger to other satellites and even astronauts.
SpaceX launched its first batch of 60 prototypes in May 2021 and has so far delivered 775 Starlink satellites into orbit. However, at the moment, about 3% of these spacecraft may have already failed, according to data compiled by the astronomer of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics Jonathan McDowell (Jonathan McDowell). By the way, the estimated failure rate of 3% does not include 45 satellites, which, as you know, SpaceX has already deliberately burned in the atmosphere.
“I would say the bounce rate is not egregious,” Mr. McDowell told Business Insider. — Indicators are not worse than others. The concern is that even a normal failure rate in such a huge constellation will create significant amounts of dangerous space debris. «.
A batch of 60 250-kg Starlink Internet satellites, SpaceX
Some of these failures may be deliberate tests, but how much (if any) is not publicly disclosed because SpaceX has not released this information. As a result, astronomers like Mr. McDowell have resorted to analyzing satellite motion data from SpaceX and the US government, as well as information about non-maneuvering Starlink satellites that fell to Earth.
SpaceX has permission from the US government to launch nearly 12,000 Starlink satellites, although it plans to launch 30,000 more — for a total of almost 42,000. If 3% of the maximum planned number of Starlink satellites fails, this could mean that 1,260 dead 250 kg table-sized satellites will circle aimlessly around the planet.
One of the satellites of the SpaceX Starlink constellation in orbit around the Earth, SpaceX
According to the European Space Agency, in February of this year, there were about 3,200 non-functioning satellites in Earth orbit. Many of these dead spacecraft regularly threaten to collide with others, creating thousands of small debris.
SpaceX says its satellites will naturally de-orbit or burn up in Earth’s atmosphere if their propulsion systems are not working. But the process can take up to five years, according to Starlink. Meanwhile, non-working satellites fly around the Earth faster than a bullet, and no one can steer them away from other spaceships that may fly in their path.
In documents filed with the FCC, SpaceX said it considers satellite failures of 5-10% unacceptable and even 1% is unlikely. The company said that if 1% of its satellites fail and cannot maneuver, the likelihood of any such SpaceX satellite colliding with a chunk of known space debris is roughly 1% in a decade. The company also said that its practice makes it unlikely that this will ever happen.
Space debris illustration — satellites and debris zoomed in, ESA / ID & Sense / ONiRiXEL
But if it was only SpaceX. The pace of space exploration is growing. OneWeb has already launched 74 satellites for its planned 48,000 constellation, and Amazon plans to put more than 3,200 of its satellites into orbit. It is unclear how much space debris such projects with thousands of bodies will generate. With no one to control them, disabled satellites sometimes rush to other spaceships, including the International Space Station.
Even if a satellite crashes into another satellite with no people on board, it only increases the problem. «In this situation, two satellites are essentially replaced by two shots of debris, like a shotgun,» said Dan Ceperley, head of LeoLabs, which tracks near-Earth objects.
Debris Collision Simulation for India’s Shakti Mission, Analytical Graphics Inc.
SpaceX launched about 2% of the planned number of the group into space, but Starlink is already creating space debris threats. In September 2021, the European Space Agency had to use a last-minute evasion maneuver on one of its spacecraft to avoid a possible collision with the Starlink satellite. The probability of collision was 1 in 1000. This may seem like a minor threat, but NASA usually sends ships to the ISS with a collision probability of 1 in 100,000. ESA said it had to relocate its satellite because SpaceX had no action plan. SpaceX explained that it missed ESA emails about this issue due to a «bug» in its communication systems. Overall, it looks like such dangers will become the norm.
As new satellite constellations are launched, regulators like the FCC may need to assess how many dead spaceships they are willing to put up with. “What is the acceptable failure rate? — asks McDowell. — Perhaps I am not competent to speak on this score. «.
Space debris flashed through the radiator of the shuttle Endeavor after one of the missions, NASA